Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/27160
Authors: 
Pope, Robin
Selten, Reinhard
Kaiser, Johannes
Kube, Sebastian
von Hagen, Jürgen
Year of Publication: 
2007
Series/Report no.: 
Bonn Econ Discussion Papers 19/2007
Abstract: 
The paper traces the dangers in the closed economy perspective of a monetary policy focused on a domestic inflation goal under a clean float. Field evidence of the damage wrought from this perspective is reinforced by that from a laboratory experiment. The laboratory experiment avoids measurement errors to which econometric estimation is subject concerning omitted or inadequately proxied determinants, non-normally distributed errors, inadequate degrees of freedom, false assumptions of temporal independence and false synchronicity in decision response lags to stimuli. Our laboratory experiment also embeds a new theory of exchange rate determination involving the uncontroversial power of fully cooperating central banks to totally fix the exchange rate. The new model is within a broader theory that includes risk effects normally excluded, SKAT, the Stages of Knowledge Ahead Theory. We use SKAT to analyse outliers in our experimental results, and indicate some new directions and foci for econometric work. Our laboratory results point to the superiority of dollarisation, currency unions, a single world money over even dirty floats that include the exchange rate as an objective in its own right.
Subjects: 
outliers analysis
clean float
dirty float
IMF
exchange rate regime
exchange rate volatility
experiment
SKAT the Stages of Knowledge Ahead Theory
monetary policy
transparent policy
exchange rate shocks
central bank cooperation
central bank conflict
beggar thy neighbor
JEL: 
D80
F31
Document Type: 
Working Paper
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