Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/271048 
Year of Publication: 
2023
Series/Report no.: 
Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers No. 5/2023
Publisher: 
Bank of Finland, Helsinki
Abstract: 
We examine a propagation mechanism that arises from households' long-term borrowing and show empirically that it has sizable real effects. The mechanism recognises that when there is long-term debt, an impulse to new borrowing generates a predictable hump-shaped path of future debt service. We confirm this pattern using a novel multi-country dataset of debt flows. Whereas new borrowing boosts output contemporaneously, debt service depresses output. Credit booms thus lead to predictable reversals in real economic activity several years later. This long-term debt propagation channel is the main reason for why indicators of credit cycles have predictive power for future economic activity.
Subjects: 
new borrowing
debt service
financial cycle
financial flows and real effects
JEL: 
E17
E44
G01
D14
ISBN: 
978-952-323-434-5
Document Type: 
Working Paper

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