Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/271031 
Year of Publication: 
2023
Series/Report no.: 
Kiel Working Paper No. 2212
Publisher: 
Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), Kiel
Abstract: 
Do economic sanctions affect internal support of sanctioned countries' governments? To answer this question, we focus on the sanctions imposed on Russia in 2014 and identify their effect on voting behavior in both presidential and parliamentary elections. On the economic side, the sanctions significantly hurt Russia's foreign trade - with regional-level variation. We use trade losses caused by the sanctions as measure for regional sanction exposure. For identification, we rely on a structural gravity model that allows us to compare observed trade flows to counterfactual flows in the absence of sanctions. Difference-in-differences estimations reveal that regime support significantly increases in response to the sanctions, at the expense of voting support of Communist parties. For the average Russian district, sanction exposure increases the vote share gained by president Putin and his party by 13 percent. Event studies and placebo estimations confirm the validity of our results.
Subjects: 
Economic sanctions
voting behavior
gravity estimation
rally-around-the-flag
JEL: 
F12
F14
F15
Document Type: 
Working Paper

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