Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/270908 
Year of Publication: 
2020
Citation: 
[Journal:] Economics of Energy & Environmental Policy [ISSN:] 2160-5890 [Volume:] 9 [Issue:] 1 [Publisher:] International Association for Energy Economics (IAEE) [Place:] Cleveland [Year:] 2020 [Pages:] 21-42
Publisher: 
International Association for Energy Economics (IAEE), Cleveland
Abstract: 
We compare prominent global energy scenarios of organizations and companies. We supplement the analysis with four own scenarios, which were derived from structured analytic techniques in combination with a numerical global energy and resource market model (Multimod). Our paper provides three central contributions: (i) a compact survey of selected outlooks with meta characteristics (conceptual nature, numerical framework, qualitative elaboration) and quantitative energy system indicators at the global and regional (Europe, Asia-Pacific region, North America) level; (ii) numerous observations from a verbal analysis intended to stimulate future research; and (iii) the discussion of our own outlook. We find that scenarios essentially carrying forward current policies and/or trends lead to future worlds that do not meet the 2°C target of the Paris Agreement. Interestingly, there are both normative and exploratory scenarios reaching the Paris Agreement, and there is no consensus between outlooks on how to attain low-emission futures towards 2050. Some scenarios rely on a very strong role of renewables, others on a substantial role of negative emission technologies with fossil fuel use, yet others on assuming decreasing energy demand. There is a strong variation between outlooks with respect to transparency on scenario generation, modelling approach, and data. We argue that, in addition to transparency, the actual inclusion of a qualitative analysis of drivers and storylines helps ensure the political, social and technological feasibility of scenarios.
Subjects: 
Energy outlooks
Energy modelling
Scenarios
Climate change
Published Version’s DOI: 
Document Type: 
Article
Document Version: 
Accepted Manuscript (Postprint)

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