Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/270847 
Year of Publication: 
2023
Series/Report no.: 
CFS Working Paper Series No. 709
Publisher: 
Goethe University Frankfurt, Center for Financial Studies (CFS), Frankfurt a. M.
Abstract: 
This paper examines the level of speculation associated with art non-fungible tokens (NFTs), comprehends the characteristics that confer value on them and designs a profitable trading strategy based on our findings. We analyze 860,067 art NFTs that have been deployed on the Ethereum blockchain and have been involved in 317,950 sales using machine learning methods to forecast the probability of sale, the trade frequency and the average price. We find that NFTs are highly speculative assets and that their price and recurrence of sale are heavily determined by the floor and the last sales prices, independent of any fundamental value.
Subjects: 
Non-fungible tokens (NFTs)
Machine Learning
Fundamental Value
Speculation
Ethereum
Blockchain
Non-fungible tokens (NFTs)
JEL: 
C55
G11
Z11
Persistent Identifier of the first edition: 
Document Type: 
Working Paper

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