Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/269181 
Authors: 
Year of Publication: 
2022
Series/Report no.: 
MNB Working Papers No. 2022/6
Publisher: 
Magyar Nemzeti Bank, Budapest
Abstract: 
How does the additional debt issued by the government affect the term structure of interest rates? In this paper we identify Treasury supply shocks using intraday high-frequency data, by exploiting the institutional setup of the UK government bond primary market. We find that supply shocks have positive effects on nominal and real interest rates. Most of the reaction is due to real term and inflation risk premia rather than the expectation component of yields. We argue both theoretically and empirically that supply shocks transmit via the repricing of duration and inflation risks in the economy. We also document that these effects are stronger under adverse economic and financial conditions.
Subjects: 
Term structure
government debt
bond risk premia
high-frequency identification
JEL: 
E43
E44
E60
Document Type: 
Working Paper

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