Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/268608 
Year of Publication: 
2023
Series/Report no.: 
Working Paper No. 203/2023
Publisher: 
Hochschule für Wirtschaft und Recht Berlin, Institute for International Political Economy (IPE), Berlin
Abstract: 
This paper examines the emergence of private debt-led growth in Canada since the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) by means of a growth regimes and macroeconomic policy regime assessment. Examining each of the four business cycles in the 1983-2020 period, roughly encompassing the entirety of the neoliberal period, results demonstrate the emergence of a 'rising' weakly export-led growth regime in the early 1990s, a shift to a 'falling' weakly export-led regime by 2001, and a turn to a debt-led private demand regime since the GFC. The macroeconomic policy regime then identifies the structural changes and policy factors which have contributed to Canada's shifting growth regime. While price competitiveness played an important role in the first three cycles, it failed to re-establish an export-led regime in the postGFC period due to decreased non-price competitiveness. Instead, the post-GFC combination of negative real interest interests which encouraged the accumulation of private debt and fiscal policy which ex post did not address the negative financial balances of the household sector supported the turn to private debt-led growth.
Subjects: 
growth regimes
macroeconomic policy regime
financialization
private debt
post-Keynesian economics
Canada
JEL: 
E11
E12
E60
E65
F62
O51
Document Type: 
Working Paper

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