Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/266454 
Year of Publication: 
2022
Series/Report no.: 
wifin Working Paper No. 14/2022
Publisher: 
RheinMain University of Applied Sciences, Wiesbaden Institute of Finance and Insurance (wifin), Wiesbaden
Abstract: 
China is undergoing a particularly fast demographic transition. Accelerated through decades of political restrictions on family planning, the median age is rising and there is a growing share of retirees, while labour force potential is declining. Faced with dire consequences for both economic growth and wealth distribution, the government has gradually relaxed its one-child policy. Will this policy shift succeed? Our study simulates China's old-age dependency ratio and total dependency ratio until the end of the century, assuming total fertility rates between 1.0 and 2.0 with constant and increasing life expectancy. It shows that both ratios would substantially increase even in the best case. Therefore, China urgently needs reforms beyond family policy.
Subjects: 
Three-child policy
total fertility rate
demographic dividend
old-age dependency ratio
total dependency ratio
pension reform
Document Type: 
Working Paper

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