Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/264792 
Year of Publication: 
2015
Series/Report no.: 
Working Paper No. 200
Publisher: 
Oesterreichische Nationalbank (OeNB), Vienna
Abstract: 
We analyze how modeling international dependencies improves forecasts for the global economy based on a Bayesian GVAR with SSVS prior and stochastic volatility. To analyze the source of performance gains, we decompose the predictive joint density into its marginals and a copula term capturing the dependence structure across countries. The GVAR outperforms forecasts based on country-specific models. This performance is solely driven by superior predictions for the dependence structure across countries, whereas the GVAR does not yield better predictive marginal densities. The relative performance gains of the GVAR model are particularly pronounced during volatile periods and for emerging economies.
Subjects: 
GVAR
global economy
forecast evaluation
log score
copula
JEL: 
C53
E37
F47
Document Type: 
Working Paper

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