Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/263685 
Year of Publication: 
2022
Series/Report no.: 
CESifo Working Paper No. 9755
Publisher: 
Center for Economic Studies and ifo Institute (CESifo), Munich
Abstract: 
Using longitudinal data from the German Socio-Economic Panel, we analyze the effects of exposure to globalization on the fertility and marital behavior in Germany, until recently a lowest-low fertility setting. We find that exposure to greater import competition from Eastern Europe led to worse labor market outcomes and lower fertility rates. In contrast, workers in industries that benefited from increased exports had better employment prospects and higher fertility. These effects are driven by low-educated, married men, and full-time workers and reflect changes in the likelihood of having any child (extensive margin). While there is evidence of some fertility postponement, we find significant effects on completed fertility. There is instead little evidence of any significant impact on marital behavior.
Subjects: 
globalization
labor market outcomes
fertility
marriage
JEL: 
F14
F16
J13
Document Type: 
Working Paper
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