Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/263684 
Year of Publication: 
2022
Series/Report no.: 
CESifo Working Paper No. 9754
Publisher: 
Center for Economic Studies and ifo Institute (CESifo), Munich
Abstract: 
This paper provides estimates of COVID-19 effective reproduction numbers and explains their evolution for selected European countries since the start of the pandemic taking account of changes in voluntary and government mandated social distancing, incentives to comply, vaccination and the emergence of new variants. Evidence based on panel data modeling indicates that the diversity of outcomes that we document may have resulted from the non-linear interaction of mandated and voluntary social distancing and the economic incentives that governments provided to support isolation. The importance of these factors declined over time, with vaccine uptake driving heterogeneity in country experiences in 2021. Our approach, also allows us to identify the basic reproduction number, R0. It is precisely estimated and differ little across countries.
Subjects: 
COVID-19
multiplication factor
under-reporting
social distancing
self-isolation
SIR model
reproduction number
pandemics
vaccine
JEL: 
D00
F60
C40
I12
E70
Document Type: 
Working Paper
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