Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/263293 
Year of Publication: 
2022
Series/Report no.: 
ISER Discussion Paper No. 1156
Publisher: 
Osaka University, Institute of Social and Economic Research (ISER), Osaka
Abstract: 
We compare the performance of financial professionals (CFAs) with university students in four financial forecasting tasks ranging from simple lab prediction tasks to longitudinal field tasks. Although students and professionals performed similarly in the artificial forecasting tasks, their performance differed in the more realistic tasks. Yet, increasing the 'representativeness of the situation' in the lab tasks did not systematically benefit financial professionals as students outperformed CFAs when forecasting historical series. However, professionals outperformed students in the field task. Our results imply that the expertise of financial professionals might have been underestimated in previous works that focused on lab tasks.
Subjects: 
Financial forecasting
financial professionals
financial literacy
cognitive skills
JEL: 
C91
C93
G17
D91
G41
Document Type: 
Working Paper

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