Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/262057 
Year of Publication: 
2022
Series/Report no.: 
Staff Report No. 1007
Publisher: 
Federal Reserve Bank of New York, New York, NY
Abstract: 
We propose a new approach to assessing the anchoring of inflation expectations using "strategic surveys". Namely, we measure households' revisions in long-run inflation expectations after they are presented with different economic scenarios. A key advantage of this approach is that it provides a causal interpretation in terms of how inflation events affect long-run inflation expectations. We implement the method in the summer of 2019 and the spring-summer of 2021 when the anchoring of long-run inflation expectations was in question. We find that the risk of unanchoring of expectations was reasonably low in both periods, and that long-run inflation expectations were essentially as well anchored in August 2021 as in July 2019, before the COVID-19 pandemic.
Subjects: 
inflation
expectations
anchoring
strategic surveys
JEL: 
D12
D84
E31
E52
Document Type: 
Working Paper

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