Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/261235
Year of Publication: 
2022
Series/Report no.: 
Cardiff Economics Working Papers No. E2022/7
Publisher: 
Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Cardiff
Abstract: 
The purpose of this paper is to investigate the nature of professionals' inflation forecasts inattentiveness. We introduce and empirically investigate a new generalized model of inattentiveness due to informational rigidity. In doing so, we outline a novel model that considers the non-linear relationship between inattentiveness and aggregate uncertainty, which crucially distinguishes between macro-economic and data ( measurement error) uncertainty. The empirical analysis uses the Survey of Professional Forecasters data and indicates that inattentiveness due to imperfect information explains professional forecasts' dynamics.
Subjects: 
Inflation Forecasts
Information Rigidities
Inattentiveness
Uncertainty
Survey Forecasts
JEL: 
E3
E4
E5
Document Type: 
Working Paper

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