Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/258423 
Authors: 
Year of Publication: 
2021
Citation: 
[Journal:] Journal of Risk and Financial Management [ISSN:] 1911-8074 [Volume:] 14 [Issue:] 7 [Article No.:] 319 [Publisher:] MDPI [Place:] Basel [Year:] 2021 [Pages:] 1-17
Publisher: 
MDPI, Basel
Abstract: 
The Prebisch-Singer (PS) hypothesis, which postulates the presence of a downward secular trend in the price of primary commodities relative to manufacturers, remains at the core of a continuing debate among international trade economists. The reason is that the results of testing the PS hypothesis depend on the starting point of the technical analysis, i.e., stationarity, nonlinearity, and the existence of structural breaks. The objective of this paper is to appraise the PS hypothesis in the short- and long-run by employing a novel multiresolution wavelets decomposition to a unique data set of commodity prices. The paper also seeks to assess the impact of the terms of trade (also known as Incoterms) on the test results. The analysis reveals that the PS hypothesis is not supported in the long run for the aggregate commodity price index and for most of the individual commodity price series forming it. Furthermore, in addition to the starting point of the analysis, the results show that the PS test depends on the term of trade classification of commodity prices. These findings are of particular significance to international trade regulators and policymakers of developing economies that depend mainly on primary commodities in their exports.
Subjects: 
border price
commodity price
net barter terms of trade
Prebisch-Singer hypothesis
wavelets analysis
Persistent Identifier of the first edition: 
Creative Commons License: 
cc-by Logo
Document Type: 
Article

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