Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/258164 
Year of Publication: 
2021
Citation: 
[Journal:] Risks [ISSN:] 2227-9091 [Volume:] 9 [Issue:] 4 [Article No.:] 76 [Publisher:] MDPI [Place:] Basel [Year:] 2021 [Pages:] 1-12
Publisher: 
MDPI, Basel
Abstract: 
Although a large number of mortality projection models have been proposed in the literature, relatively little attention has been paid to a formal assessment of the effect of model uncertainty. In this paper, we construct a Bayesian framework for embedding more than one mortality projection model and utilise the finite mixture model concept to allow for the blending of model structures. Under this framework, the varying features of different model structures can be exploited jointly and coherently to have a more detailed description of the underlying mortality patterns. We show that the proposed Bayesian approach performs well in fitting and forecasting Japanese mortality.
Subjects: 
age-cohort model
Bayesian modelling
Cairns-Blade-Dowd model
finite mixture model
Lee-Carter model
Persistent Identifier of the first edition: 
Creative Commons License: 
cc-by Logo
Document Type: 
Article
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