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Erscheinungsjahr: 
2019
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[Journal:] Risks [ISSN:] 2227-9091 [Volume:] 7 [Issue:] 3 [Article No.:] 78 [Publisher:] MDPI [Place:] Basel [Year:] 2019 [Pages:] 1-20
Verlag: 
MDPI, Basel
Zusammenfassung: 
In this paper, the generalized Pareto distribution (GPD) copula approach is utilized to solve the conditional value-at-risk (CVaR) portfolio problem. Particularly, this approach used (i) copula to model the complete linear and non-linear correlation dependence structure, (ii) Pareto tails to capture the estimates of the parametric Pareto lower tail, the non-parametric kernel-smoothed interior and the parametric Pareto upper tail and (iii) Value-at-Risk (VaR) to quantify risk measure. The simulated sample covers the G7, BRICS (association of Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) and 14 popular emerging stock-market returns for the period between 1997 and 2018. Our results suggest that the efficient frontier with the minimizing CVaR measure and simulated copula returns combined outperforms the risk/return of domestic portfolios, such as the US stock market. This result improves international diversification at the global level. We also show that the Gaussian and t-copula simulated returns give very similar but not identical results. Furthermore, the copula simulation provides more accurate market-risk estimates than historical simulation. Finally, the results support the notion that G7 countries can provide an important opportunity for diversification. These results are important to investors and policymakers.
Schlagwörter: 
risk management
conditional value-at-risk
copula
portfolio optimization
risk measures
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