Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/257632 
Year of Publication: 
2019
Citation: 
[Journal:] International Journal of Financial Studies [ISSN:] 2227-7072 [Volume:] 7 [Issue:] 2 [Article No.:] 34 [Publisher:] MDPI [Place:] Basel [Year:] 2019 [Pages:] 1-12
Publisher: 
MDPI, Basel
Abstract: 
The predictive power of the yield curve slope, or the yield spread is well established in the United States (US) and European Union (EU) countries since 1998. However, there exists a gap in the literature on the predictive power of the yield spread on the Chinese economy. This paper provides a different leading recession indicator using the Chinese and US economy as comparative examples: the user cost spread, being the difference of the opportunity costs of holding government securities of different maturities. We argue that the user cost spread, based on the Divisia monetary aggregate data like the ones produced by the Center for Financial Stability, provides improved predictive ability and a better intuitive explanation based on changes in the user cost price of holding bonds.
Subjects: 
Divisia monetary aggregates
user cost spread
recession
China
yield spread
JEL: 
E32
E37
E43
E50
Persistent Identifier of the first edition: 
Creative Commons License: 
cc-by Logo
Document Type: 
Article

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