Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/256934 
Year of Publication: 
2019
Citation: 
[Journal:] Economies [ISSN:] 2227-7099 [Volume:] 7 [Issue:] 1 [Article No.:] 1 [Publisher:] MDPI [Place:] Basel [Year:] 2019 [Pages:] 1-17
Publisher: 
MDPI, Basel
Abstract: 
This study investigates the impact of commodity price volatility spillovers on financial sector stability. Specifically, the study investigates the spillover effects between oil and food price volatility and the volatility of a key macroeconomic indicator of importance to financial stability: the nominal Uganda shilling per United States dollar (UGX/USD) exchange rate. Volatility spillover is examined using the Generalized Vector Autoregressive (GVAR) approach and Multivariate Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (MGARCH) techniques, namely the dynamic conditional correlation (DCC), constant conditional correlation (CCC), and varying conditional correlation (VCC) models. Overall, the results of both the GVAR and MGARCH techniques indicate low levels of volatility spillover and market interconnectedness except during crisis periods, at which point cross-market volatility spillovers and market interconnectedness sharply and markedly increased. Specifically, the results of the MGARCH analysis show that the DCC model produces the best results. The obtained results point to an amplification of dynamic conditional correlations during and after the global financial crisis (GFC), suggesting an increase in volatility spillovers and interdependence between these markets following the global financial crisis. This is also confirmed by the results of the total spillover index based on the GVAR analysis, which shows low but time-varying volatility spillover that intensified during periods of high uncertainty and market crises, particularly during the global financial crisis and sovereign debt crisis periods.
Subjects: 
volatility spillovers
commodity price volatility
exchange rate volatility
MGARCH
JEL: 
F30
G01
G12
G14
G15
Persistent Identifier of the first edition: 
Creative Commons License: 
cc-by Logo
Document Type: 
Article

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