Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/252342 
Year of Publication: 
2021
Series/Report no.: 
IDB Working Paper Series No. IDB-WP-01289
Publisher: 
Inter-American Development Bank (IDB), Washington, DC
Abstract: 
In this paper, we assess the economy-wide impact of Climate Change (CC) on agriculture and food security in 20 Latin American and the Caribbean (LAC) countries. Specifically, we focus on the following three channels through which CC may affect agricultural and non-agricultural production: (i) agricultural yields; (ii) labor productivity in agriculture, and; (iii) economy-wide labor productivity. We implement the analysis using the Integrated Economic-Environmental Model (IEEM) and databases for 20 LAC available through the OPEN IEEM Platform. Our analysis identifies those countries most affected according to key indicators including Gross Domestic Product (GDP), international commerce, sectoral output, poverty, and emissions. Most countries experience negative impacts on GDP, with the exception of the major soybean producing countries, namely, Brazil, Argentina and Uruguay. We find that CC-induced crop productivity and labor productivity changes affect countries differently. The combined impact, however, indicates that Belize, Nicaragua, Guatemala and Paraguay would fare the worst. Early identification of these hardest hit countries can enable policy makers pre-empting these effects and beginning the design of adaptation strategies early on. In terms of greenhouse gas emissions, only Argentina, Chile and Uruguay would experience small increases in emissions.
Subjects: 
Integrated Economic-Environmental Modeling (IEEM) Platform
dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model
climate change
agriculture
greenhouse gas emissions
JEL: 
C68
J2
Q1
Q5
Persistent Identifier of the first edition: 
Creative Commons License: 
cc-by-nc-nd Logo
Document Type: 
Working Paper

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