Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/252259 
Year of Publication: 
2022
Series/Report no.: 
IZA Discussion Papers No. 15135
Publisher: 
Institute of Labor Economics (IZA), Bonn
Abstract: 
Unemployment recoveries in the US have been inexorable. Between 1948 and 2019, the annual reduction in the unemployment rate during cyclical recoveries was fairly tightly distributed around 0.1 log points per year. The economy seems to have an irresistible force toward restoring full employment. In the aftermath of a recession, unless another crisis intervenes, unemployment continues to glide down. Occasionally, unemployment rises rapidly during an economic crisis, while most of the time, unemployment declines slowly and smoothly at a near-constant proportional rate. We show that similar properties hold for other measures of the US unemployment rate and for the unemployment rates of many other emerging and advanced countries.
Subjects: 
business cycle
recovery
unemployment
recession
JEL: 
E32
J63
J64
Document Type: 
Working Paper

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