Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/251593 
Year of Publication: 
2022
Series/Report no.: 
Working Paper Series in Economics No. 407
Publisher: 
Leuphana Universität Lüneburg, Institut für Volkswirtschaftslehre, Lüneburg
Abstract: 
By providing numerical inflation projections. Many central banks currently face inflation well above their targets and with that the challenge to prevent spillovers on inflation expectations. We study the effect of different communication about the 2021 inflation surge on German consumers' inflation expectations using a randomized control trial. We show that information about rising inflation increases short- and long-term inflation expectations. This initial increase in expectations can be mitigated using information about inflation projections, where numerical information about professional forecasters' projections seems to reduce inflation expectations by more than policymaker's characterization of inflation as a temporary phenomenon.
Subjects: 
Short-run and long-run inflation expectations
inflation surge
randomized control trial
survey experiment
persistent or transitory inflation shock
JEL: 
E31
E52
E58
D84
Document Type: 
Working Paper

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