Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/250125 
Year of Publication: 
2021
Series/Report no.: 
Discussion Papers No. 958
Publisher: 
Statistics Norway, Research Department, Oslo
Abstract: 
The global energy transition from fossil to low-carbon energy challenges the future of the Norwegian petroleum sector, a major factor in the country's economy, now facing financial climate risk and longterm declining demand, particularly for gas to the EU. What energy policies can assist the transition into a low-carbon society? We explore three investment scenarios for the Norwegian offshore energy sector from 2020 to 2070: 1) Business as usual, 2) Increasing cash-flow by harvesting existing petroleum fields and cutting investments (Harvest-and-Exit), or 3) Rebuilding with green offshore energy investments. In a new economic model, we compare impacts on key macro- and sectoreconomic variables. We find that investing moderately in green offshore energy production can reverse the extra job decline that a quicker phase-out of petroleum investments would incur. The impacts on the Norwegian sovereign wealth fund - Government Pension Fund Global - and on gross domestic product (GDP) per capita are insignificant to 2050 and positive by 2070. The simulated investments and economic results can be compared with observations to constitute forward-looking indicators of Norway's energy transitioning.
Subjects: 
Green transition
Energy
Petroleum
Offshore wind
JEL: 
Q43
Q54
Document Type: 
Working Paper

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