Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/250077 
Year of Publication: 
2022
Series/Report no.: 
Ruhr Economic Papers No. 940
Publisher: 
RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Essen
Abstract: 
South Africa has one of the highest crime rates in the world. This paper examines the effect of weather shocks on various types of crime. Using a 12-year panel data set at monthly resolution on the police ward level, we observe a short-term effect of temperatures on violent crime, supporting the heat-aggression link suggested by psychological research. Furthermore, we find evidence for a subtle medium-term effect of weather on crime via droughts and agricultural income, which is in line with the economic theory of crime. Yet, we also emphasize often neglected but well-documented limitations to the interpretability of weather data and weather-induced mechanisms. Recognizing these limitations, we conclude with a cautious interpretation of our findings to inform police deployment strategies.
Subjects: 
South Africa
weather
crime
income shocks
JEL: 
C33
O55
Q54
R11
Persistent Identifier of the first edition: 
ISBN: 
978-3-96973-101-7
Document Type: 
Working Paper

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