Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/249359 
Year of Publication: 
2020
Series/Report no.: 
JRC Working Papers in Economics and Finance No. 2020/8
Publisher: 
Publications Office of the European Union, Luxembourg
Abstract: 
Response management to the SARS-CoV-2 outbreak requires to answer several forecasting tasks. For hospital managers, a major one is to anticipate the likely needs of beds in intensive care in a given catchment area one or two weeks ahead, starting as early as possible in the evolution of the epidemic. This paper proposes to use a bivariate Error Correction model to forecast the needs of beds in intensive care, jointly with the number of patients hospitalised with Covid-19 symptoms. Error Correction models are found to provide reliable forecasts that are tailored to the local characteristics both of epidemic dynamics and of hospital practice for various regions in Europe in Italy, France and Scotland, both at the onset and at later stages of the spread of the disease. This reasonable forecast performance suggests that the present approach may be useful also beyond the set of analysed regions.
Subjects: 
SARS-CoV-2
Covid-19
Intensive Care Units
Cointegration
Error correctionmodels
Health forecasting
Multivariate time series
Vector Autoregression Models
JEL: 
C53
C32
Persistent Identifier of the first edition: 
ISBN: 
978-92-76-21448-9
Creative Commons License: 
cc-by Logo
Document Type: 
Working Paper

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