Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/249071 
Year of Publication: 
2021
Series/Report no.: 
AGDI Working Paper No. WP/21/060
Publisher: 
African Governance and Development Institute (AGDI), Yaoundé
Abstract: 
This paper measures the macroeconomic impact of recent political crisis, protest and uprisings in Africa with the generalized synthetic control method and evaluates the role played by natural resource dependence on the modulation of the impact. We find that political crisis, protests and uprisings have a significant and negative impact on economic growth while the impact is positive on investment and price level. For economic growth, the deviation of the actual series from the counterfactual is negative, instantaneous, persistent and highly significant; indicating non-negligible costs of the shock. Indeed, dependence on natural resources amplifies the negative effect of political crisis, protests and uprisings on GDP. Finally, the more the treated country depends on natural resources, the more it becomes resilient from the investment losses caused by political crisis.
Subjects: 
political conflicts
economic growth
Africa
JEL: 
F52
K42
O17
O55
P16
Document Type: 
Working Paper

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