Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/248960 
Year of Publication: 
2021
Series/Report no.: 
CESifo Working Paper No. 9415
Publisher: 
Center for Economic Studies and ifo Institute (CESifo), Munich
Abstract: 
We examine forecast accuracy and efficiency of the Social Security Administration’s projections for cost rate, trust fund balance, trust fund ratio made during 1980-2020 with horizons up to 95 years. We find that the reported deterioration in the accuracy of the forecasts during 2010’s has reversed. The level of informational inefficiency was pervasive during 1990-2009, although it shows signs of improvement after 2010.
Subjects: 
social security trust funds
long-range solvency forecasts
Nordhaus test
forecast efficiency
fixed-event forecast revisions
JEL: 
C53
E37
E66
H55
H68
Document Type: 
Working Paper
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