Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/248780 
Year of Publication: 
2021
Series/Report no.: 
Tinbergen Institute Discussion Paper No. TI 2021-096/VI
Publisher: 
Tinbergen Institute, Amsterdam and Rotterdam
Abstract: 
Prospective economic developments depend on the behavior of consumer spending. A key question is whether private expenditures recover once social distancing restrictions are lifted or whether the COVID-19 crisis has a sustained impact on consumer confidence, preferences, and, hence, spending. The elongated and profound experience of the COVID-19 crisis may durably affect consumer preferences. We conducted a representative consumer survey in five European countries in summer 2020, after the release of the first wave's lockdown restrictions, and document the underlying reasons for households' reduction in consumption in five key sectors: tourism, hospitality, services, retail, and public transports. We identify a large confidence shock in the Southern European countries and a shift in consumer preferences in the Northern European countries, particularly among high-income earners. We conclude that the COVID-19 experience has altered consumer behavior and that long-term sectoral consumption shifts may occur.
Subjects: 
COVID-19
household behavior
consumption
expectations
experiences
consumer preferences
economic resilience
sectoral changes
zombification
fiscal policy
JEL: 
D12
D81
D84
E21
E60
E71
G51
H30
Document Type: 
Working Paper

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