Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/247536 
Year of Publication: 
2019
Citation: 
[Journal:] Econometrics [ISSN:] 2225-1146 [Volume:] 7 [Issue:] 3 [Publisher:] MDPI [Place:] Basel [Year:] 2019 [Pages:] 1-20
Publisher: 
MDPI, Basel
Abstract: 
This paper re-examines the instrumental variable (IV) approach to estimating returns to education by use of compulsory school law (CSL) in the US. We show that the IV-approach amounts to a change in model specification by changing the causal status of the variable of interest. From this perspective, the IV-OLS (ordinary least square) choice becomes a model selection issue between non-nested models and is hence testable using cross validation methods. It also enables us to unravel several logic flaws in the conceptualisation of IV-based models. Using the causal chain model specification approach, we overcome these flaws by carefully distinguishing returns to education from the treatment effect of CSL. We find relatively robust estimates for the first effect, while estimates for the second effect are hindered by measurement errors in the CSL indicators. We find reassurance of our approach from fundamental theories in statistical learning.
Subjects: 
average return to education
instrumental variables
randomisation
research design
JEL: 
C26
C52
I21
I26
J24
Persistent Identifier of the first edition: 
Creative Commons License: 
cc-by Logo
Document Type: 
Article

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