Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/246867 
Authors: 
Year of Publication: 
2021
Series/Report no.: 
Chemnitz Economic Papers No. 050
Publisher: 
Chemnitz University of Technology, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Chemnitz
Abstract: 
This paper assesses information contained in the micro dataset of the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters regarding quarterly Brent crude oil price forecasts. We examine the expectations building mechanism by referring to the processing of information and confirm the presence of information rigidity within the crude oil market. However, our findings also show that simple models of imperfect information considered in the literature are insufficient to explain the behavior of professional forecasters. We provide additional stylized facts which are helpful for designing more elaborate imperfect information models.
Subjects: 
Crude oil
Disagreement
Expectations
Heterogeneity
Information rigidity
Survey data
JEL: 
D83
D84
E44
Document Type: 
Working Paper

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