Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/24653
Authors: 
Kappler, Marcus
Year of Publication: 
2007
Series/Report no.: 
ZEW Discussion Papers 07-068
Abstract: 
The focus of this paper is the evaluation of a very popular method for potential output estimation and medium-term forecasting? the production function approach?in terms of predictive performance. For this purpose, a forecast evaluation for the three to five years ahead predictions of GDP growth for the individual G7 countries is conducted. To carry out the forecast performance check a particular testing framework is derived that allows the computation of robust test statistics given the specific nature of the generated out-of sample forecasts. In addition, medium-term GDP projections from national and international institutions are examined and it is assessed whether these projections convey a reliable view about future economic developments and whether there is scope for improving their predictive content.
Subjects: 
Potential output
projections
forecast evaluation
JEL: 
C53
E27
E23
Document Type: 
Working Paper

Files in This Item:
File
Size
569.66 kB





Items in EconStor are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved, unless otherwise indicated.