Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/246292 
Year of Publication: 
2020
Series/Report no.: 
Working Paper No. 2002
Publisher: 
Johannes Kepler University of Linz, Department of Economics, Linz
Abstract: 
This note expands Kilian's (2008) original time series of exogenous oil supply shocks along two dimensions. First, we extend the sample period and include production shortfalls in OPEC member states during 2004:10-2018:12. Second, we also consider production shortfalls in non-OPEC countries. Our extended series of exogenous oil supply shocks displays statistically significant correlation with alternative estimates of oil supply shocks based on vector-autoregressive models. At the same time, it requires a limited number of assumptions about the counterfactual evolution of production in the countries under consideration rather than the hotly debated identifying restrictions inherent in multivariate structural models.
Subjects: 
Counterfactual analysis
Crude oil production
Exogenous events
Oil supply shocks
JEL: 
N50
Q31
Q35
Document Type: 
Working Paper

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