Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/246198 
Authorgroup: 
Work stream on Eurosystem modelling
Year of Publication: 
2021
Series/Report no.: 
ECB Occasional Paper No. 267
Publisher: 
European Central Bank (ECB), Frankfurt a. M.
Abstract: 
This paper provides an assessment of the macroeconomic models regularly used for forecasting and policy analysis in the Eurosystem. These include semi-structural, structural and time-series models covering specific jurisdictions and the euro area within a closed economy, small open economy, multi-country or global setting. Models are used as analytical frameworks for building baseline projections and for supporting the preparation of monetary policy decisions. The paper delivers four main contributions. First, it provides a survey of the macroeconomic modelling portfolios currently used or under development within the Eurosystem. Second, it explores the analytical gaps in the Eurosystem models and investigates the scope for further enhancement of the main projection and policy models, and the creation of new models. Third, it reviews current practices in model-based analysis for monetary policy preparation and forecasting and provides recommendations and suggestions for improvement. Finally, it reviews existing cooperation modalities on model development and proposes alternative sourcing and organisational strategies to remedy any knowledge or analytical gaps identified.
Subjects: 
econometric modelling
forecasting and simulation
monetary policy,central banking
JEL: 
C5
E47
E52
E58
F4
Persistent Identifier of the first edition: 
ISBN: 
978-92-899-4474-8
Document Type: 
Research Report

Files in This Item:
File
Size





Items in EconStor are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved, unless otherwise indicated.