Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/245911 
Year of Publication: 
2021
Series/Report no.: 
DIW Discussion Papers No. 1976
Publisher: 
Deutsches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung (DIW), Berlin
Abstract: 
The energy transition requires substantial amounts of metals such as copper, nickel, cobalt and lithium. Are these metals a key bottleneck? We identify metal-specific demand shocks, estimate supply elasticities and pin down the price impact of the energy transition in a structural scenario analysis. Metal prices would reach historical peaks for an unprecedented, sustained period in a net-zero emissions scenario. The total value of metals production would rise more than four-fold for the period 2021 to 2040, rivaling the total value of crude oil production. Metals are a potentially important input into integrated assessments models of climate change.
Subjects: 
Conditional forecasts
structural vector autoregression
structural scenario analysis
energy transition
metals
fossil fuels
prices
climate change
JEL: 
C32
C53
Q3
Q4
Q54
Document Type: 
Working Paper

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