Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/243007 
Year of Publication: 
2021
Series/Report no.: 
Working Paper No. 2104
Publisher: 
Koç University-TÜSIAD Economic Research Forum (ERF), Istanbul
Abstract: 
COVID-19 pandemic had a devastating effect on both lives and livelihoods in 2020. The arrival of effective vaccines can be a major game changer. However, vaccines are in short supply as of early 2021 and most of them are reserved for the advanced economies. We show that the global GDP loss of not inoculating all the countries, relative to a counterfactual of global vaccinations, can be higher than the cost of manufacturing and distributing vaccines globally. We use an economic-epidemiological framework that combines a SIR model with international production and trade networks. Based on this framework, we estimate the costs for 65 countries and 35 sectors. Our estimates suggest that up to 49 percent of the global economic costs of the pandemic in 2021 are borne by the advanced economies even if they achieve universal vaccination in their own countries.
Subjects: 
COVID-19
Sectoral Infection Dynamics
Globalization
International I-O Linkages
JEL: 
E61
F00
C51
Document Type: 
Working Paper

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