Bitte verwenden Sie diesen Link, um diese Publikation zu zitieren, oder auf sie als Internetquelle zu verweisen: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/242944 
Erscheinungsjahr: 
2021
Schriftenreihe/Nr.: 
Arbeitspapier No. 02/2021
Verlag: 
Sachverständigenrat zur Begutachtung der Gesamtwirtschaftlichen Entwicklung, Wiesbaden
Zusammenfassung: 
We jointly estimate the U.S. business and financial cycle through a unified empirical approach while simultaneously accounting for the role of financial factors. Our approach uses the Beveridge-Nelson decomposition within a medium-scale Bayesian Vector Autore-gression. First, we show, both in reduced form and when we identify a structural financial shock, that variation in financial factors had a larger role post-2000 and a more modest role pre-2000. Our results suggest that the financial sector did play a role in overheatingthe business cycle pre-Great Recession. Second, while we document a positive unconditional correlation between the credit cycle and the output gap, the correlation of the lagged credit cycle and the contemporaneous output gap turns negative when we condition on a financial shock. The sign-switch suggests that the nature of the underlying shocks may be important for understanding the relationship between the business and financial cycles.
Schlagwörter: 
Business Cycle
Financial Cycle
Financial shocks
JEL: 
C18
E51
E32
Dokumentart: 
Working Paper

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