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dc.contributor.authorHeinemann, Friedrichen
dc.contributor.authorUllrich, Katrinen
dc.date.accessioned2009-02-16T14:49:31Z-
dc.date.available2009-02-16T14:49:31Z-
dc.date.issued2005-
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10419/24166-
dc.description.abstractIn this analysis, the informational content of central bank rhetoric is assessed based on the experience with the ECB since 1999. Among the ECB?s communication channels we focus on the monthly press conferences. Based on a counting of certain signal words we construct a wording indicator reflecting the ?hawkishness? of monetary rhetorics. For the construction, we develop an objective algorithm representing a learning process of ECB observers. We then integrate this indicator into a standard Taylor type ordered probit model for the explanation of the interest rate. We show that the wording indicator can improve the model?s fit when added to the standard explanatory variables. However, a model based solely on this indicator performs worse than the baseline. The results are confirmed by out of sample analysis where the determination of the wording indicators? weights is based on the early ECB period which, subsequently, is excluded from the tests. Our conclusion is that linguistic analysis can improve but not substitute more rigorous forecasting techniques based on hard economic data.en
dc.language.isoengen
dc.publisher|aZentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung (ZEW) |cMannheimen
dc.relation.ispartofseries|aZEW Discussion Papers |x05-70en
dc.subject.jelE43en
dc.subject.jelE52en
dc.subject.ddc330en
dc.subject.keywordTaylor ruleen
dc.subject.keywordwordingen
dc.subject.keywordcentral bank communicationen
dc.subject.stwZentralbanken
dc.subject.stwEuropäische Wirtschafts- und Währungsunionen
dc.subject.stwStaatliche Informationen
dc.subject.stwInformationswerten
dc.subject.stwTaylor-Regelen
dc.subject.stwSchätzungen
dc.subject.stwEU-Staatenen
dc.titleDoes it Pay to Watch Central Bankers' Lips? The Information Content of ECB Wording-
dc.typeWorking Paperen
dc.identifier.ppn502875003en
dc.rightshttp://www.econstor.eu/dspace/Nutzungsbedingungenen
dc.identifier.repecRePEc:zbw:zewdip:4553en

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