Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/24166
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dc.contributor.authorHeinemann, Friedrichen_US
dc.contributor.authorUllrich, Katrinen_US
dc.date.accessioned2009-02-16T14:49:31Z-
dc.date.available2009-02-16T14:49:31Z-
dc.date.issued2005en_US
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10419/24166-
dc.description.abstractIn this analysis, the informational content of central bank rhetoric is assessed based on the experience with the ECB since 1999. Among the ECB?s communication channels we focus on the monthly press conferences. Based on a counting of certain signal words we construct a wording indicator reflecting the ?hawkishness? of monetary rhetorics. For the construction, we develop an objective algorithm representing a learning process of ECB observers. We then integrate this indicator into a standard Taylor type ordered probit model for the explanation of the interest rate. We show that the wording indicator can improve the model?s fit when added to the standard explanatory variables. However, a model based solely on this indicator performs worse than the baseline. The results are confirmed by out of sample analysis where the determination of the wording indicators? weights is based on the early ECB period which, subsequently, is excluded from the tests. Our conclusion is that linguistic analysis can improve but not substitute more rigorous forecasting techniques based on hard economic data.en_US
dc.language.isoengen_US
dc.publisher|aZentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung (ZEW) |cMannheim-
dc.relation.ispartofseries|aZEW Discussion Papers |x05-70en_US
dc.subject.jelE43en_US
dc.subject.jelE52en_US
dc.subject.ddc330en_US
dc.subject.keywordTaylor ruleen_US
dc.subject.keywordwordingen_US
dc.subject.keywordcentral bank communicationen_US
dc.subject.stwZentralbanken_US
dc.subject.stwEuropäische Wirtschafts- und Währungsunionen_US
dc.subject.stwStaatliche Informationen_US
dc.subject.stwInformationswerten_US
dc.subject.stwTaylor-Regelen_US
dc.subject.stwSchätzungen_US
dc.subject.stwEU-Staatenen_US
dc.titleDoes it Pay to Watch Central Bankers' Lips? The Information Content of ECB Wordingen_US
dc.typeWorking Paperen_US
dc.identifier.ppn502875003en_US
dc.rightshttp://www.econstor.eu/dspace/Nutzungsbedingungen-
dc.identifier.repecRePEc:zbw:zewdip:4553-

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