Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/241142
Authors: 
Armantier, Olivier
Koðsar, Gizem
Pomerantz, Rachel
Skandalis, Daphné
Smith, Kyle
Topa, Giorgio
van der Klaauw, Wilbert
Year of Publication: 
2020
Series/Report no.: 
Staff Report No. 949
Abstract: 
This paper studies how inflation beliefs reported in the New York Fed's Survey of Consumer Expectations have evolved since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic. We find that household inflation expectations responded slowly and mostly at the short-term horizon. In contrast, the data reveal immediate and unprecedented increases in individual inflation uncertainty and in inflation disagreement across respondents. We find evidence of a strong polarization in inflation beliefs and we show differences across demographic groups. Finally, we document a strong link, consistent with precautionary saving, between inflation uncertainty and how respondents used the stimulus checks they received as part of the 2020 CARES Act.
Subjects: 
inflation expectations
inflation uncertainty and disagreement
COVID-19 pandemic
JEL: 
E31
E21
Document Type: 
Working Paper

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