Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/240677 
Year of Publication: 
2019
Series/Report no.: 
Working Papers No. 2019-09
Publisher: 
Banco de México, Ciudad de México
Abstract: 
This paper documents that Mexican households anticipated the fiscal reform of 2014 several months before enacted. This change in expectations is documented using a novel source of information available in Google Trends, among other sources. It then analyzes the economic consequences of this change using a general equilibrium growth model with taxes and uncertainty. The model also considers the presence of generic distortions in the form of wedges in the first order conditions to isolate the effect of taxation. The paper provides an explanation for the unusual trajectories of investment and GDP of the Mexican economy around 2013.
Subjects: 
business cycles
expectations
taxes
investment
JEL: 
E30
E22
E62
Document Type: 
Working Paper
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