Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/240641 
Year of Publication: 
2021
Series/Report no.: 
wiiw Working Paper No. 198
Publisher: 
The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (wiiw), Vienna
Abstract: 
The South-North migration corridor, i.e. migration flows to the EU from Africa, the Middle East and EU neighbouring countries in the East, have overtaken the East-West migration corridor, i.e. migration flows from Central and East European countries to the EU15 and the European Free Trade Association (EFTA). This is likely to dominate migration flows into the EU+EFTA over the coming decades. This paper applies a gravity modelling approach to analyse patterns and drivers of the South-North migration corridor over the period 1995-2020 and explores bilateral mobility patterns from 75 sending countries in Africa, the Middle East and other EU neighbours to the EU28 and EFTA countries. The study finds that income gaps, diverging demographic trends, institutional and governance features and persisting political instability, but also higher climate risks in the neighbouring regions of the EU, are fuelling migration flows along the South-North corridor and will most likely continue to do so.
Subjects: 
Migration
Africa
Middle East
Eastern EU partnership countries
migration to EU
demographic developments
refugees
migration policies
gravity modelling
climate risks
JEL: 
F22
J110
J61
O150
Document Type: 
Working Paper

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