Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/240334 
Year of Publication: 
2020
Series/Report no.: 
Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers No. 11/2020
Publisher: 
Bank of Finland, Helsinki
Abstract: 
We estimate a three-variate VAR using proxies of global financial uncertainty, the global financial cycle, and world industrial production to simulate the effects of the jump in financial uncertainty observed in correspondence of the Covid-19 outbreak. We predict the cumulative loss in world output one year after the uncertainty shock due to Covid-19 to be about 14%.
Subjects: 
Covid-19
Financial Uncertainty
Vector AutoRegressions
GlobalÖnancial cycle
World industrial production
JEL: 
C32
E32
Persistent Identifier of the first edition: 
ISBN: 
978-952-323-332-4
Document Type: 
Working Paper

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