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https://hdl.handle.net/10419/23983
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DC Field | Value | Language |
---|---|---|
dc.contributor.author | Hüfner, Felix P. | en |
dc.contributor.author | Lahl, David | en |
dc.date.accessioned | 2009-02-16T14:47:31Z | - |
dc.date.available | 2009-02-16T14:47:31Z | - |
dc.date.issued | 2003 | - |
dc.identifier.uri | http://hdl.handle.net/10419/23983 | - |
dc.description.abstract | This paper analyzes which factors are driving the ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment. Using the results of a poll among survey participants as well as Granger causality tests we identify three groups of influence factors: other sentiment indicators, financial variables and real economy data. In a second step these factors are used to estimate out-of-sample forecasts for the ZEW Indicator. We find that a simple model that includes German manufacturing order data, the German yield structure and the US Consumer Confidence indicator as explanatory variables is able to outperform a naive univariate benchmark model as well as the consensus forecast for the ZEW Indicator as published by news agencies. | en |
dc.language.iso | eng | en |
dc.publisher | |aZentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung (ZEW) |cMannheim | en |
dc.relation.ispartofseries | |aZEW Discussion Papers |x03-48 | en |
dc.subject.jel | E32 | en |
dc.subject.jel | E37 | en |
dc.subject.ddc | 330 | en |
dc.subject.keyword | leading indicators | en |
dc.subject.keyword | Germany | en |
dc.subject.keyword | zew | en |
dc.subject.keyword | forecasting | en |
dc.subject.stw | Konjunkturindikator | en |
dc.subject.stw | Geschäftsklima | en |
dc.subject.stw | Konjunkturprognose | en |
dc.subject.stw | Prognoseverfahren | en |
dc.subject.stw | Deutschland | en |
dc.title | What Determines the ZEW Indicator? | - |
dc.type | Working Paper | en |
dc.identifier.ppn | 856552879 | en |
dc.rights | http://www.econstor.eu/dspace/Nutzungsbedingungen | en |
dc.identifier.repec | RePEc:zbw:zewdip:1357 | en |
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