Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/239035 
Year of Publication: 
2019
Citation: 
[Journal:] Journal of Risk and Financial Management [ISSN:] 1911-8074 [Volume:] 12 [Issue:] 1 [Publisher:] MDPI [Place:] Basel [Year:] 2019 [Pages:] 1-11
Publisher: 
MDPI, Basel
Abstract: 
We seek to determine whether a United States President's job approval rating is influenced by the Misery Index. This hypothesis is examined in two ways. First, we employ a nonlinear model that includes several macroeconomic variables: the current account deficit, exchange rate, unemployment, inflation, and mortgage rates. Second, we employ probit and logit regression models to calculate the probabilities of U.S. Presidents' approval ratings to the Misery Index. The results suggest that Layton's model does not perform well when adopted for the United States. Conversely, the probit and logit regression analysis suggests that the Misery Index significantly impacts the probability of the approval of U.S. Presidents' performances.
Subjects: 
Misery Index
inflation
unemployment
Probit and Logit models
Okun's law
JEL: 
C13
C30
E32
E66
Persistent Identifier of the first edition: 
Creative Commons License: 
cc-by Logo
Document Type: 
Article

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