Bitte verwenden Sie diesen Link, um diese Publikation zu zitieren, oder auf sie als Internetquelle zu verweisen: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/238090 
Autor:innen: 
Erscheinungsjahr: 
2020
Schriftenreihe/Nr.: 
Graduate Institute of International and Development Studies Working Paper No. HEIDWP17-2020
Verlag: 
Graduate Institute of International and Development Studies, Geneva
Zusammenfassung: 
This paper describes and quantifies fiscal risk in advanced and developing economies. Forecast errors in GDP growth explain nearly half of fiscal risk in advanced economies. However, errors in growth forecasts are less important in explaining fiscal risk in low- and middle-income countries. Most of the forecast errors in the debt-to-GDP ratio cannot be explained with standard debt-dynamics variables and needs to be attributed to the "the unexplained part of debt". Fiscal risk is high in bad-times, even when they are fully anticipated. In developing and emerging market economies this result is linked to negative balance sheet effects associated with foreign currency debt. The main drivers of fiscal risk in ADB borrowing countries are exchange rate volatility, commodity prices and small economic size.
Schlagwörter: 
Fiscal policy
Public debt
Fiscal sustainability
JEL: 
H61
H62
H63
H68
C82
Dokumentart: 
Working Paper

Datei(en):
Datei
Größe





Publikationen in EconStor sind urheberrechtlich geschützt.