Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/237952 
Year of Publication: 
2020
Series/Report no.: 
ESRI Working Paper No. 681
Publisher: 
The Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), Dublin
Abstract: 
A reason for revising the EU fiscal rules in the early 2010s was to improve member states' forecasts against a background of documented biases in official projections. Using data from Stability and Convergence Programmes and the European Commission's Spring Forecasts, evidence is presented which indicates deficiencies in official forecasting in the EU arising under the new enhanced EU fiscal framework, with forecasts being irrational and a pessimistic bias. Recently highlighted obstacles to the way in which independent fiscal institutions operate in member states and the EU fiscal rules' emphasis on ex-ante fiscal plans may contribute to such forecasting performance.
Subjects: 
Official forecasts
forecasting bias
EU fiscal rules
JEL: 
C23
E37
E62
Document Type: 
Working Paper

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