Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/237770 
Year of Publication: 
2021
Series/Report no.: 
Tinbergen Institute Discussion Paper No. TI 2021-037/IV
Publisher: 
Tinbergen Institute, Amsterdam and Rotterdam
Abstract: 
I show that the irreversibility of dying coupled with gradual information acquisition over time on the likely arrival and eventual effectiveness of vaccines confers a real option value to lockdown strategies that delay the incidence of a pandemic.The case for lockdown strategies becomes stronger the more likely vaccine discovery is, and the less uncertainty exists about its effectiveness.
Subjects: 
Pandemic Dynamics
Stochastic Vaccine arrival
information acquisition
irreversibility
lockdowns
real options
JEL: 
G12
G13
G18
Document Type: 
Working Paper

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