Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/237769 
Year of Publication: 
2021
Series/Report no.: 
Tinbergen Institute Discussion Paper No. TI 2021-036/III
Publisher: 
Tinbergen Institute, Amsterdam and Rotterdam
Abstract: 
We analyze output growth risk with respect to financial conditions across U.S. manufacturing industries. Using a multi-level quantile regression approach, we find strong heterogeneity in growth risk, particularly between the more vulnerable durable goods sector and the more resilient nondurable goods sector. Moreover, we show that industry characteristics significantly explain these differences. Large, or material intensive durable goods producing, or energy intensive nondurable goods producing industries are more vulnerable to adverse financial conditions, while industries engaging in labor hoarding, or with a high capital or overhead labor intensity are less susceptible.
Subjects: 
downside risk
business cycle
quantile regression
manufacturing
financial conditions
JEL: 
C21
E32
E44
L16
L60
Document Type: 
Working Paper

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