Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/237451 
Year of Publication: 
2020
Series/Report no.: 
IDB Working Paper Series No. IDB-WP-1154
Publisher: 
Inter-American Development Bank (IDB), Washington, DC
Abstract: 
This paper examines why a larger share of COVID-19 deaths occurs among young and middle-aged adults in developing countries than in high-income countries. Using novel data at the country, city, and patient levels, we investigate the drivers of this gap in terms of the key components of the standard Susceptible-Infected-Recovered framework. We obtain three main results. First, we show that the COVID-19 mortality age gap is not explained by younger susceptible populations in developing countries. Second, we provide indirect evidence that higher infection rates play a role, showing that variables linked to faster COVID-19 spread such as residential crowding and labor informality are correlated with younger mortality age profiles across cities. Third, we show that lower recovery rates in developing countries account for nearly all of the higher death shares among young adults, and for almost half of the higher death shares among middle-aged adults. Our evidence suggests that lower recovery rates in developing countries are driven by a higher prevalence of preexisting conditions that have been linked to more severe COVID-19 complications, and by more limited access to hospitals and intensive care units in some countries.
Subjects: 
COVID-19
Coronavirus
Mortality
Developing countries
JEL: 
I14
I18
J10
R10
O57
Persistent Identifier of the first edition: 
Creative Commons License: 
cc-by-nc-nd Logo
Document Type: 
Working Paper

Files in This Item:
File
Size





Items in EconStor are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved, unless otherwise indicated.