Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/236707 
Year of Publication: 
2021
Series/Report no.: 
CESifo Working Paper No. 9165
Publisher: 
Center for Economic Studies and Ifo Institute (CESifo), Munich
Abstract: 
In this paper, we develop a novel dataset of weekly economic conditions indices for the 50 U.S. states going back to 1987 based on mixed-frequency dynamic factor models with weekly, monthly, and quarterly variables that cover multiple dimensions of state economies. We show that there is considerable heterogeneity in the length, depth, and timing of business cycles across individual states. We assess the role of states in national recessions and propose an aggregate indicator that allows us to gauge the overall weakness of the U.S. economy. We also illustrate the usefulness of these state-level indices for quantifying the main forces contributing to the economic collapse caused by the COVID-19 pandemic and for evaluating the effectiveness of federal economic policies like the Paycheck Protection Program.
Subjects: 
local economic conditions
government policies
weekly indicators
state economies
cross-state heterogeneity
mixed-frequency dynamic factor model
economic weakness index
Markov-switching
recession
probabilities
JEL: 
C32
C55
E32
E66
Document Type: 
Working Paper
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